Sunday night, 12/10, storm estimates

MONDAY MORNING REPORT:

As of 11 AM, it appears the snow has ended for now.   So far, none of the threatened high winds. Snowfall amounts vary widely from 2" in Keene to 8" in two locations in  Lake Placid. Saranac Lake reports 3", but 8" not far to the west. Newcomb reports 5".  Therefore, any area that was skiable before this thaw and then snow is still skiable, although the trail breaking will likely be hard work.

The only consistent factor is that the snow is heavy and wet, but less so at higher elevations.  Given that the depths reported so far are elevation dependent, we can assume significantly more snow above 2,500 feet.  

​We'll be collecting reports as the week goes on and post an update before the weekend.

The National Weather Service has now come down from their earlier estimates of 8-14" of new snow by Monday afternoon to agree with Accuweather and other forecasters that it will be more like 5-10". And given this trend, the final total will likely be closer to the low end than the high end. The agreement in all these forecasts is that it will be heavy, wet snow. A good base perhaps, but not exactly a 'powder fest'. After Monday, all forecasts agree that there will not be any significant new snow, and that daytime temperatures will be a few degrees above or below freezing. Next Sunday will likely be the warmest with a high of 40. 

So, at the high end of the estimates, the groomed centers can try to make some good conditions out of the wet snow. The low end may just allow some packing to produce a good base that is likely to survive the warmer temperatures forecast for later next week. 

Areas that held a good base (Gulf Brook Rd., Newcomb Lake Rd., Whiteface Hwy.) should have survived this thaw and will be skiable regardless of the new snowfall amounts.